NY Times

DENVER — When Barack Obama stood before an admiring audience at Mile High Stadium here and accepted his presidential nomination 21 months ago, Democratic leaders crowed about turning Colorado into a reliable stronghold, another step toward building the party’s strength in the West.

Those dreams of expansion have given way to hopes for survival.

Republicans are now well positioned for a statewide resurgence, threatening several Democratic seats in the midterm elections and raising questions about whether the opening chapter of the Obama administration has eroded gains that Democrats had been making here for the previous six years.

A persistently sluggish economy, the ninth-highest foreclosure rate in the country, the rising federal budget deficit and opposition to the new health care law have all contributed to a volatile environment for Democrats. The number of registered Democrats has dropped slightly since Mr. Obama’s 9-point victory here, becoming only the third presidential candidate of his party to carry Colorado since Harry S. Truman.

“We were set up for a 15- or 20-year Democratic dominance,” said Gary Hart, a former Democratic senator from Colorado, adding that the party would have prospered if the economy had not collapsed. “This state, more than most, is a pendulum. It seems to be to be swinging faster than it did before.”

The president’s approval ratings in Colorado have hovered just below 50 percent, according to a variety of public and private polls, but it is the sentiment of those who strongly disapprove of Mr. Obama that causes particular worry for Democrats. Party strategists believe that independent male voters will be difficult, if not impossible, to win over, so Democrats are trying to improve their standing with independent female voters here and in other states, who will hold considerable sway in the fall elections.

At stake this year in Colorado are Democratic efforts to hold on to the governor’s office, a United States Senate seat and at least three competitive House districts, along with both chambers of the state legislature.

The White House has angered some Democrats here by trying to quash a primary challenge against Senator Michael Bennet, who was appointed to the seat when Ken Salazar joined the cabinet as interior secretary. Party leaders feared that a costly primary battle could weaken Mr. Bennet, a former superintendent of schools in Denver who had never held elective office.

“A fair reading of the facts are that I was appointed, the president endorsed me and 10 months later someone decided to run against me,” Mr. Bennet said in an interview. He added, “But like anybody else, I have to win this on my own.”

Andrew Romanoff, a former Colorado House speaker, rebuffed repeated appeals and is challenging Mr. Bennet from the left. He won the Democratic caucuses this spring and is expected to deliver a strong showing at the state convention on May 22.

His popularity among people active in party politics provoked enough worry on Mr. Bennet’s behalf that he is hedging his bets and collecting signatures to get his name on the ballot in case he fails to win enough support at the convention.

“It is not only the stubbornness of Republicans that’s at fault here; it is too often the spinelessness of Democrats,” Mr. Romanoff said recently at a house party in Aurora, where voters vented their frustrations about Congress. “I don’t take any joy in that conclusion.”

While the White House endorses all Democratic incumbents, some voters say the Colorado case should be different because Mr. Bennet has never been elected. The Democratic National Committee has tried to fire up the Obama army of supporters, known as Organizing for America, to help Mr. Bennet. But that decision did not sit well with some Democrats, several of whom aired their disapproval in interviews last week.

“Keep your nose out of local politics, you know?” said Jane Johnson, a retiree, who first became involved in politics as a volunteer for Mr. Obama’s presidential campaign and supports Mr. Romanoff. “It’s ironic coming from Obama.”

The unstable situation facing Mr. Obama and his party is a stark contrast to the mood less than two years ago at the national convention. Democratic strategists believe their party’s popularity will rise as the health care law begins taking effect and the economy improves.

But registered Democrats have fallen by 30,000 since November 2008, a drop of about 4 percent, according to the Colorado secretary of state. And since April, when the state began allowing new voters to register online, more Republicans than Democrats have done so. As of May 1, the state had 849,572 Republicans, 813,126 Democrats and 752,503 voters not affiliated with either party.

“Never in my wildest dreams did I feel we’d be in this position,” said Dick Wadhams, chairman of the Colorado Republican Party. “Voters got carried away with the charisma of Obama, but the bailouts, health care, cap-and-trade was not what they bargained for.”

The political atmosphere has produced the biggest burst of optimism for Republicans since 2004, Mr. Wadhams said, with the party setting its sights on Democratic Representatives Betsy Markey, Ed Perlmutter and John Salazar (the brother of the interior secretary). Ms. Markey, who represents Fort Collins and the eastern swatch of the state, is seen as one of the most vulnerable members of Congress.

Yet for all the enthusiasm among party stalwarts, Republicans in Colorado must also navigate several primary contests on Aug. 10, the outcomes of which will help determine whether their candidates hold wide appeal to independent voters. The discontent with government in Washington has produced an active Tea Party movement and challenges to the Republican establishment.

Democratic strategists concede that in Colorado, as in many other states, their best chance to avoid big losses in November would be for the Republican Party to fracture.

At the Cool River Café in Greenwood Village, a suburb of Denver that is home to many independent voters, Jane Norton, a former lieutenant governor, praised Tea Party activists. “I say, God bless people for getting off their chairs!” But in her bid for the Republican Senate nomination, for which she is one of three candidates, she said the party needed to produce nominees who could win and be unified.

“I know we have some disenfranchised independents and Democrats here,” Ms. Norton said Friday, speaking over applause that filled the crowded room. “If you can’t get elected, you can’t govern. If you can’t govern, you can’t change this country.”