Wall Street Journal

By KRIS MAHER and AMY MERRICK

Playing a game of political chicken, Democratic senators who fled Wisconsin to stymie restrictions on public-employee unions said Sunday they planned to come back from exile soon, betting that even though their return will allow the bill to pass, the curbs are so unpopular they'll taint the state's Republican governor and legislators.

The Wisconsin standoff, which drew thousands of demonstrators to occupy the capitol in Madison for days at a time, has come to highlight efforts in other states to address budget problems in part by limiting the powers and benefits accorded public-sector unions.

Sen. Mark Miller said he and his fellow Democrats intend to let the full Senate vote on Gov. Scott Walker's "budget-repair" bill, which includes the proposed limits on public unions' collective bargaining rights. The bill, which had been blocked because the missing Democrats were needed for the Senate to have enough members present to consider the bill, is expected to pass the Republican-controlled chamber.

He said he thinks recent polls showing voter discontent with Mr. Walker over limits on bargaining rights have been "disastrous" for the governor and give Democrats more leverage to seek changes in a broader two-year budget bill Mr. Walker proposed Tuesday.

But Republican Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald said Sunday night that the "budget repair" bill can not be amended at this point. But it's possible that over the next few weeks adjustments could be made to Mr. Walker's broader budget plan. "This bill will pass. The collective bargaining piece has to pass. If it doesn't the governor's budget doesn't work," he said.

Mr. Miller declined to say how soon the Democratic senators, who left for Illinois on Feb. 17, would return. He said the group needed to address several issues first—including the resolution Senate Republicans passed last week that holds the Democrats in contempt and orders police to detain them when they return to Wisconsin.

"We are now looking at returning to the state capitol and requiring the senators to take a vote and have them declare who they're with — the workers or the governor," Mr. Miller said.

Amid the public demonstrations and Democratic walk-out, the two sides have been negotiating. Mr. Fitzgerald said the governor is negotiating through two staff members with two Democrats, Sen. Bob Jauch and Sen. Tim Cullen. And last week, Mr. Fitzgerald met a week ago with Mr. Jauch and another Democrat in Kenosha.

Mr. Jauch said some people have suggested the lawmakers remain in Illinois for months while recall efforts of Republican senators proceed. He said that would be difficult for one senator who is seven months pregnant.

"I think we have to realize that there's only so much we can do as a group to make a stand," Mr. Jauch said. "It's really up to the public to be engaged in carrying the torch on this issue."

Before Sunday's developments, Mr. Walker said he would not be swayed by the polls. "If I governed by polls I'd still be in the state Assembly," Mr. Walker said on Friday. "I won reelection twice as county executive in an area of the state that went two-thirds for President Obama by identifying a problem, telling people how I was going to deal with it, and then moving forward with the solution."

Chris Schrimpf, a spokesman for the governor, said Sunday that Mr. Walker "looks forward to the Senate Democrats returning as soon as possible."

Mr. Miller said the Democrats also want to fight Mr. Walker's recently announced two-year budget plan, which cuts spending by $4.2 billion, or 6.7%, including $1.25 billion less in state aid to schools and local governments.

Mr. Walker's bill would prohibit bargaining over health care and pensions for about 170,000 public employees in the state and would allow public employees to opt out of paying dues or belonging to a union.

The bill also would end the automatic collection of dues by the state, and require that every public-employee union get recertified to represent workers through an annual election.

As the standoff in Wisconsin has dragged on, several polls showed majorities of Wisconsin voters disapproving of Mr. Walker's plan as it affects public employees. At the same time, the governor maintains strong support among Republicans. He also has significant backing from voters for his plan to have union members pay more out of their salaries toward their pensions and health care. A poll released Friday by Rasmussen Reports, based on a phone survey conducted March 2 of 800 likely Wisconsin voters, found 52% of them opposed weakening collective-bargaining rights, while 39% were in favor.

When asked whether state workers should take a 10% pay cut—roughly the equivalent of the governor's plan—44% supported the move and 38% were opposed.

A poll by the Wisconsin Policy Research Institute, which calls itself the state's "free-market think tank," showed that more voters, particularly independents, disapproved of the governor than in a similar survey by the institute in November. Republican voters' support remained basically unchanged from the fall. The poll was based on phone interviews of 603 Wisconsin residents and conducted Feb. 27-March 1. Both polls had a margin of error of 4 percentage points.

The results of both polls were echoed in a recent poll by The Wall Street Journal / NBC News, which found that 62% of Americans oppose efforts to strip unionized government workers of their rights to collectively bargain, even as they want public employees to contribute more money to their retirement and health-care benefits. The poll was based on nationwide telephone interviews of 1,000 adults, conducted from Feb. 24-28, by the polling organizations of Peter D. Hart and Bill McInturff.

Mark Jefferson, head of the Wisconsin GOP, said polls reflected the big campaign unions have launched in the state. "The millions of dollars in national union money for advertising have been effective at getting the union message out," he said.

He said even after Mr. Walker's plan is passed, the state's public workers will still have more collective bargaining rights than federal workers and more bargaining rights than the more than 80% of the state's workers that don't belong to unions.

Several big public-sector unions in Wisconsin have already said they would agree to fiscal concessions in Mr. Walker's bill, including contributing 5.8% out of their pay to pensions and 12.6% out of their wages for health care premiums, up from 6% on average today. But they object to ending bargaining rights and other changes.

Write to Kris Maher at kris.maher@wsj.com and Amy Merrick at amy.merrick@wsj.com