This year's initiatives are a mixed bag for lawmakers when it comes to plugging a $2 billion hole in the state budget, with one measure that could bring in millions of dollars in new revenue and another that would cost millions to implement.

The state estimates Costco's liquor-privatization measure could bring in up to $68 million in additional revenue over the next two years, while SEIU's long-term-care-worker proposal would require $32 million in new spending that's partially offset by federal matching dollars and new fees.

Tim Eyman's tolling measure doesn't directly impact the budget, but it would scramble the state's plans to build and maintain highways with the help of tolls in the coming years.

Ballots in the all-mail election must be dropped off or postmarked by Nov. 8.

The fall ballot contains other issues for voters, as well.

In Seattle, voters will decide on a proposed $60 car-tab fee that would raise $204 million for various transportation improvements, including transit and streets, and a $232 million Families and Education Levy, nearly double the amount of the current levy.

Counties and cities across the state — including Seattle and Bellevue — will pick council members. And voters in Snohomish County will decide the hard-fought race between Democratic County Executive Aaron Reardon and his challenger, state Rep. Mike Hope, R-Lake Stevens.

The statewide initiatives, however, carry the most far-reaching consequences if approved, and state lawmakers will have to deal with the impacts when they convene later this month to balance the budget.

The Service Employees International Union (SEIU) measure, Initiative 1163, would require the state to increase spending to pay for more rigorous background checks as well as extended training and certification of long-term-care workers.

"When we're facing a $2 billion deficit, anything that adds to it just makes it that much worse," said Senate Ways and Means Chairman Ed Murray, D-Seattle, who has said he supports the SEIU measure.

In normal times, the money needed for I-1163 would be almost chump change in the state's $32 billion budget. But last month Gov. Chris Gregoire proposed more than 160 individual cuts, some as small as $100,000, to close the gaping budget shortfall.

For example, she proposed saving nearly $15 million by eliminating over-the-counter drug coverage for Medicaid clients and ending medical interpreter services for them, as well. Those costs could be covered by the money I-1163 would take away.

The union has argued that additional training for long-term-care workers is a high enough priority that the state should pay for it now.

SEIU also backs increasing taxes to avoid deeper budget cuts, although state law requires a two-thirds vote in the House and Senate or voter approval to boost taxes. It's a near-certainty the Legislature could not muster the votes, and it's unclear whether voters would approve a tax increase, either.

Initiative 1183, by comparison, has the potential to bring in an additional $57 million to $68 million in liquor revenue over the next two years for the state, according to an analysis by the state Office of Financial Management. OFM also projects the measure would add $63 million to $71 million to the share of liquor revenue that cities and counties receive.

The initiative would close state liquor stores and sell their assets, including the liquor-distribution center. It would allow grocery stores to sell liquor and create licensing fees for sale and distribution of liquor based on sales revenue.

Sen. Joe Zarelli, of Ridgefield, Clark County, the ranking Republican on the Senate Ways and Means Committee, wasn't confident the projected increase in liquor money from I-1183 would flow into state coffers in time to help the current budget, given the complexity of selling off the state's liquor stores and distribution system.

If voters approve the measure, "I don't know how quickly it can all be implemented," he said.

OFM estimates that, if there are no complications, the state could be effectively out of the liquor business by mid-June 2012 — halfway through the current two-year budget.

As to the tolling initiative, I-1125, state officials say it would have no immediate impact on transportation spending that lawmakers would need to address next legislative session.

Over the long term, though, critics say it would severely limit the amount of money available to build and maintain highways and bridges.

The initiative would require the Legislature to approve tolls instead of the state Transportation Commission; ban variable-rate tolls, which charge more during peak driving times; and mandate that tolls go only toward work on the road being tolled.

It also would prevent Sound Transit light rail from running across the Interstate 90 bridge.

Critics say the changes, among other things, would make it more difficult for the state to sell bonds backed solely by tolls and put too many restrictions on how the money could be used to build and maintain highways.

Eyman maintains the initiative would make lawmakers more accountable for raising and spending billions of dollars in tolls, and would make tolling fairer by banning variable-rate tolls that he says hit the state's poorest residents the hardest.

All three initiatives were put on the ballot by deep-pocketed special interests.

Costco raised more than $22 million to privatize the state liquor system through I-1183, SEIU used nearly $1.7 million to boost training for long-term-care workers with I-1163, and Bellevue developer Kemper Freeman spent nearly $1.1 million to restrict tolling and block light rail on the I-90 bridge, through I-1125.

Andrew Garber: 360-236-8266 or agarber@seattletimes.com